Stricter water bans loom with drier days.

The dire state of Melbourne's water storages - by far the worst recorded for October - could force the imposition of stage four water restrictions when Water Minister Tim Holding considers the issue next month.

Storages are at 34.4% compared to 40.2% last year - the previous worst year for storage levels. The trigger for stage 4 restrictions is 29%, although this has been overlooked in the past.

Because storage levels always fall in summer and autumn, Melbourne could be facing unprecedented levels of as little as 25% by June unless water use is tightened. Mr Holding will decide on November 30, based on advice from Melbourne Water and water retailers, whether to go to stage 4.

Stage 4 restrictions impose bans on watering lawns and gardens at any time, bans on filling pools and spas of any size, and bans on washing cars except with buckets.

The city has been on stage 3a restrictions since April last year.

The State Government is not commenting on the issue and Melbourne Water spokesman Andrew McGinnes declined to say what advice the utility would give the Government.

"The signs are not terribly positive in terms of a wet October, but we won't be speculating on what we'll be telling Government in a month's time," he said.

The period from July onwards - the filling season for storages - had been disappointing and flows into reservoirs had been about half their usual rate.

"Winter was good, but spring was disappointing," Mr McGinnes said. "In September, Melbourne got its lowest rainfall on record. In October, we've had a week with no rain in what's supposed to be one of the wettest months of the year."

To make matters worse, the long-range forecast to the end of the year is for warmer and drier-than-average weather.

Nevertheless, said Mr McGinnes, "it's always difficult to speculate on water storages … if you look back over the data there have been years in November where for whatever reason it just dumps over the catchments."

Water experts have suggested alternatives to stage 4 restrictions. John Langford, of Melbourne University, advocates daily water consumption targets.

"Having daily targets allows the community to manage their water habits by providing them with immediate feedback. The targets in (the) 1982 (drought) were received very well by the community," said Professor Langford in 2006.

"The targets were publicised in weather reports, in newspapers and were top-of-mind. A daily water consumption target should be set to ensure storage levels are kept well above the trigger for stage 4 restrictions."

Source: The Age, Stephen Cauchi, October 19, 2008